Sunday, April 19, 2020
day 35
So I read any interesting article in the nytimes entitled: The Coronavirus in America: The Year ahead. Some interesting parts:
“If Americans pour back out in force, all will appear quiet for perhaps three weeks. Then the emergency rooms will get busy again.”
- So in France there have been 3 lockdowns. Between the first and second lockdown was 165 days and 95 days beween the second and third lockdowns. I think though the three weeks is if everyone went back to work without things like like working from home or masks.
“Surges are inevitable, the models predict, even when stadiums, churches, theaters, bars and restaurants remain closed, all travelers from abroad are quarantined for 14 days, and domestic travel is tightly restricted to prevent high-intensity areas from reinfecting low-intensity ones.”
- This one is true since we have had three lockdowns despite above measures in place.
“Imagine an America divided into two classes: those who have recovered from infection with the coronavirus and presumably have some immunity to it; and those who are still vulnerable.”
- I don’t think this really happened especially since you can get re-infected. Also, variants.
“Soon the government will have to invent a way to certify who is truly immune. A test for IgG antibodies, which are produced once immunity is established”
- True.
“As Americans stuck in lockdown see their immune neighbors resuming their lives and perhaps even taking the jobs they lost, it is not hard to imagine the enormous temptation to join them through self-infection, experts predicted. Younger citizens in particular will calculate that risking a serious illness may still be better than impoverishment and isolation.”
- I haven’t heard of any intentional self-infecting.
“once a national baseline of hundreds of thousands of daily tests is established across the nation, any viral spread can be spotted when the percentage of positive results rises.”
- True.
“Ultimately, suppressing a virus requires testing all the contacts of every known case. “
- Seems like the most success at using contract tracing is South Korea. It works, numbers don’t lie.
In France
the strategy is “Tester, alerter, protéger” (basically it’s self declaration
and I think the contact tracers is the medical staff). They also have an application called “TousAntiCovid”
“Any effort to make a vaccine will take at least a year to 18 months.”
- If we take Moderna and consider they started developing it in Jan 2020 and use the date it was issued an Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA (December 18th 2020) it only took one year.
“All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even that timeline was optimistic.
“the record is four years, for the mumps vaccine.”
- See above.
“Several felt that so-called convalescent serum could work.”
“Having a daily preventive pill would be an even better solution, because pills can be synthesized in factories far faster than vaccines or antibodies can be grown and purified.”
- In theworks.
“But even if one were invented, production would have to ramp up until it was as ubiquitous as aspirin, so 300 million Americans could take it daily.”
- See above.
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