So history.
Highlights:
"All five influenza pandemics we have details about developed more virulent variants before settling down."
"In 1918′s epidemic, the first wave was both mild — the British Grand Fleet suffered 10,313 first wave cases but only four deaths — and not very transmissible. A variant caused an explosive second wave."
"The 1957 influenza pandemic led to a significant increase in deaths, but in 1960, after both a vaccine was developed and many people supposedly had immunity from prior infection, a variant caused peak mortality to exceed pandemic levels."
"In 1968, the United States saw the most deaths in the first year, but in Europe — again after a vaccine and naturally acquired immunity were in play — the second year was deadlier."
"During the 2009 influenza pandemic, variants emerged that caused breakthrough infections and increased viral loads and deaths in the United States, and studies found “greater burden of severe illness in the year after the pandemic” outside the United States as well."
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