dance 3 day 96, 97

So population immunity?

dance 3 day 95

So history.

Highlights:

"All five influenza pandemics we have details about developed more virulent variants before settling down."

"In 1918′s epidemic, the first wave was both mild — the British Grand Fleet suffered 10,313 first wave cases but only four deaths — and not very transmissible. A variant caused an explosive second wave."

"The 1957 influenza pandemic led to a significant increase in deaths, but in 1960, after both a vaccine was developed and many people supposedly had immunity from prior infection, a variant caused peak mortality to exceed pandemic levels."

"In 1968, the United States saw the most deaths in the first year, but in Europe — again after a vaccine and naturally acquired immunity were in play — the second year was deadlier."

"During the 2009 influenza pandemic, variants emerged that caused breakthrough infections and increased viral loads and deaths in the United States, and studies found “greater burden of severe illness in the year after the pandemic” outside the United States as well."

dance 3 day 92-94

So reality check.

Highlights: 

"The vaccines, though marvels of basic and applied science, do not form an impenetrable shield against SARS-CoV-2. They work as advertised, meaning they usually prevent severe illness and death, but they do not deliver what is known as “sterilizing immunity.”"

“They’re evolving. Even the delta variant, we have two sublineages we are monitoring,” Van Kerkhove said. “Everyone is fixated on the delta, but we should be prepared for more.”"

"This hints at how the pandemic may eventually play out: The virus would become endemic. It would not be eradicated — and would still cause occasional clusters of infection — but it would not ignite runaway outbreaks nor be nearly as lethal as when it emerged into the human population. That drop in lethality will be driven less by changes in the virus itself than by the changed immunological landscape."

"This scenario — call it Scenario A — has been the general assumption or hope of many infectious-disease experts since the start of the pandemic. The dialing down of the lethality of the disease would be an example of history repeating itself: The 1918 influenza pandemic was caused by a virus that never vanished, but instead became the cause of the seasonal flu."

"“That’s not saying you won’t get infected again, it’s saying that you won’t get really sick from it,” she said."

"Janis Orlowski, chief health-care officer of the Association of American Medical Colleges, offers one version of Scenario B: “Delta goes on to epsilon which goes on to lambda, and that becomes another ugly virus. . . . The virus mutates to a strain that we are not effectively vaccinated against — and that leads us into another ugly year.”"

"Orlowski adds, “I think Scenario B is less likely, but is still a concern because we are not vaccinated at the rate we should be.”"

"Even if, through vaccination and prudent behavior, the virus is brought under control, the rattling psychological effects of the pandemic could persist."

"Meanwhile, many people are not scared at all, don’t feel vulnerable, or simply are done — done, done, done — with the pandemic. "

dance 3 day 91

So delta and kids.

dance 3 day 90

So Tokyo Olympics 2020 in 2021.

dance 3 day 88, 89

So lambda.

dance 3 day 87

So starting tomrrow health passport required for all places of leisure and culture with more than 50 people.

 

Starting August 1st it'll be extended to cafes, restaurants, shopping centers, hospitals, retirement homes, medico-social establishments, as well as to travel by plane, train and coach for long-distance journeys.